Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
