A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
